RC124 MayJun 2026 - Magazine - Page 24
ENERGY
24—RENEW CANADA –MAY/JUNE 2026
focused on electricity, relying principally on ASHPs, and an
alternative ‘pathway’ emphasizing thermal energy networks.
Although heat pumps o昀昀er a relatively simple way to
provide low-carbon heating and cooling, the study concludes that to meet the heating demand driven by widespread adoption of ASHPs at scale, “the existing power
system—generation, transmission and distribution—
would need massive expansion not contemplated in any
current plans.” In addition, the electricity infrastructure
upgrades to “provide reliable, net-zero power for ASHPs,”
including the cost of providing electricity-dependent
back-ups such as baseboard heating to cope with very cold
days, “would cost ten times more” than the initial investment required by building owners to install ASHPs. To
cover the capital costs of upgrading electricity infrastructure to meet peak demand stimulated by the increased dependence on heat pumps, “future electricity rates would
need to rise signi昀椀cantly above the in昀氀ation rate.”
The second ‘pathway’ investigated by Boltzmann is a
focus on ‘thermal energy networks’ (or district energy).
District energy systems (DE) have recently shown promise
as a reliable and, importantly, 昀椀nancially feasible option
attracting interest from developers and other investors.
Thermal networks are also “agnostic” when it comes
energy sources, so a thermal network currently running
on natural gas can be converted to utilize a variety of
low and non-carbon alternatives. Examples include
WET (wastewater energy transfer) technology, which
transforms waste heat from sanitary sewers into thermal
heat, currently being implemented in Markham, Ont. and
in Vancouver.
Finding a way forward
Notwithstanding a variety of challenges facing
widespread implementation of DE, the Boltzmann
Institute is bullish on helping Ontario to refocus its current
over-emphasis on electricity for space heating purposes.
Coincident with the release of the “Two Pathways” report
last June, the Ontario Ministry of Energy and Mines
directed the Independent Electricity System Operator
(IESO) to “broaden its planning processes beyond
consideration of electricity alone toward integration
with planning for other energy systems, with speci昀椀c
mention of district energy systems.” Acknowledging
that access to funds will always be at a premium, the
Boltzmann Institute has followed up its policy critique
with submissions to the Ministry of Energy and Mines that
illustrate the potential for tapping funds already allocated
to the IESO to support the work required to optimize
use of thermal resources such as waste heat recovery,
geothermal potential, and the selection of district energy
opportunities.
“Thermal networks,” suggests the Boltzmann Institute
“are capable of supplying heat (and cooling) to as much
as 70 per cent of residences in Ontario,” allowing the
government to shape energy policy with a scalpel rather
than a chainsaw.
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To meet the heating
demand driven by
widespread adoption
of ASHPs at scale,
“the existing power
system would need
massive expansion not
contemplated in any
current plans.”
A downside is that thermal networks
also require considerable collaborative
e昀昀ort to get them launched—as well as
a signi昀椀cant political commitment from
all levels of government to entice private
sector or institutional investors such
as pension funds to get involved. The
Boltzmann authors warn that “careful
planning and design optimization” would
be required as well as a radical shift in
attitudes to thermal energy storage (TES).
“Government policy could help motivate
conversion from natural gas,” they suggest.
TES should become “the default within a
short period after thermal network service
becomes available in a community” as TES
can hold its heat value for “days, weeks
or longer, and costs about one per cent of
battery electric storage.” A high-pro昀椀le
example is Enwave Energy Corporation’s
two-million-gallon tank integrated into
The Well, a new mixed-use project in
downtown Toronto fed by the city’s
famous deep lake water cooling project.
The system will also serve the surrounding
community.
In addition to facilitating the capture
of waste heat from year-round sources
such as data centres, nuclear plants and other industrial
sources, TES can also be optimized to re昀氀ect seasonal
requirements, storing solar heat and rejected heat from
HVAC units supplying air conditioning in the summer to
be used as a heat source in the winter.
